In the “Special
Issue: The Cyprus Problem” of the “In Depth” bimonthly Electronic Newsletter,
published in February 2017, I dealt with the internal aspect of the Cyprus
problem under the title “Uncertainties at the Cyprus negotiations.” In this
issue, I shall point out the uncertainties about the external aspect, mainly
the security and the guarantee issues in a possible agreement.
INTERNAL
SECURITY
According to the
new guarantee formula that the Greek Cypriot side has brought to the table,
first 75% of Turkish troops will be withdrawn and the remaining 25% will be
withdrawn within a predetermined time (e.g. 18 months) under UNFICYP
supervision. (The Turkish Cypriot side did not accept this. They insist that
the Turkish Cypriot constituent state, whenever it is needed, should have always
the unilateral right of calling Turkey for intervention.)
Internal
security was organized in three stages: First, there will be a police force at
the constituent state level, comprising 60% Greek Cypriot and 40% Turkish
Cypriot policemen, who will serve at their desks, i.e. 5,000 in the south and
3,100 in the north.
The second phase
is at the federal level, with 500 police officers at a proportion of 50: 50%,
units with the authority of using weapons would serve in emergency response and
in federal criminal investigation bureau. The local police of the Turkish
Cypriot state will ask for help from the federal government if it is difficult.
In the third
stage, the UN Security Council will have an international police force of 2,500
people. This police force will provide personnel from the EU countries outside
Greece and the UK and from third countries outside Turkey. This multinational
police force to be formed immediately after the settlement will not interfere
in any way with the internal arrangement of the United Cyprus and it will
function for five years and will be placed on the border between the two
constituent states, after the Turkish troops have withdrawn completely from the
island. According to Article 6 of the UN Constitution, there will be only light
weapons and no authority to interfere with conflicts.
The
international police force will only be activated if there is a threat and
international peace is in danger. This is a comment by the Security Council
based on political criteria and interests and it requires a number of other
measures, such as implementing the 7th Article, the economic embargo before the
military measures and/or the sea and air bombings.
EXTERNAL SECURITY
AND GUARANTEES
Great Britain
and Greece, three of the NATO countries that guaranteed the independence,
sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Cyprus in 1960, seem
eager to give up their rights in the new era.
Greek Foreign
Minister Kotzias made a proposal to sign a Treaty of Friendship and
Stabilization between Greece, Cyprus and Turkey. Through this treaty, it was
announced that safety valves could be added to various subjects.
Turkey, on the
other hand, requires a structure, as in 1960, not only for the United Cyprus
Republic, but also for the constituent states, in which the territorial
integrity, security and constitutional order are guaranteed. Three Turkish
formulas have been put forward regarding the guarantees:
1. A formula, in
which NATO is involved,
2. The guarantee
of a Turkish base within the Turkish Cypriot province and commanded by the
Turkish commander,
3. The Turkish
guarantor will remain for only the Turkish Cypriots after the settlement. In
this regard, no agreement has yet been reached.
SOVEREIGN
MILITARY BASE
It is understood
that Turkey's proposal is not to assure the physical security of the Turkish
Cypriots or the implementation of the resolution, but rather to raise the geo-strategic
demands of her own country. Although Turkey had leaked to the press that she
wanted to limit her right to interfere with island’s internal affairs, only to
the Turkish Cypriot province, but later Turkey wanted to keep a sovereign military
base within the Turkish state to be formed in the northern part of the island.
This would be commanded by a Turkish commander and its duration would not be
fixed.
Turkish
President Erdogan wanted to give the message that Turkey will always stay in
Cyprus with guarantees and her troops, in a statement he gave immediately after
the end of the five-party conference in Geneva in the middle of January 2017.
Erdogan demanded that the closed territory of Famagusta be given to the Greek
Cypriot side, while the territory of Kokkina and Morphou would be combined and
given to the Turkish Cypriot side. "Do not wait for Karpasia and the
shoreline" he added. This meant that the Pirgo-Dilliria regions would be
given to the control of the constituent Turkish Cypriot state.
According to the
Greek Cypriot press, the occupation army has recently developed facilities in
the Kokkina region and the Republic of Cyprus also was asked for some facilities,
but these requests were rejected. After this rejection, 250 concrete and other
materials were transported by sea to this region. According to the evaluations
made, this development of the region is related to the military base the
Turkish side wants to establish in Cyprus in case of a solution. According to
the Turkish proposal, this base will be sovereign and 2,500 troops will settle
here.
RECOGNIZING THE RIGHT
OF FOUR FREEDOMS TO THE CITIZENS OF TURKEY, THE CITIZENS OF A NON-EU MEMBER
It was described
as "very serious", when Turkey demanded, especially during the
discussions on the Cyprus issue, that the EU's 4 freedoms (free movement of
people, goods, services and capital) should be granted to Turkish citizens and
the Greek Cypriot side stated that it did not consider this demand to deal with
Cyprus negotiations.
President Nicos
Anastasiades sent a letter to the European Commission on January 30, 2017,
saying that "Ankara made a blackmail with her demand for 4 freedoms"
and, if recognized, "this will have very serious and unprecedented effects
not only on Cyprus, but also on the EU and its member states".
The newspaper
wrote that Anastasiades received positive responses from the European
countries, saying that so far some EU member states were against to the
granting of 4 freedoms to Turkish citizens and Bulgaria responded in the same
way the day before.
The
Fileleftheros newspaper, dated 4 April 2017, informed that a joint procedure of
Washington, London, Brussels and the UN Secretary General's Special Adviser on
Cyprus Espen Barth Eide was being followed that the demand for the recognition
of 4 freedoms would be recognized for the Turkish citizens after the settlement
of the Cyprus problem.
Under the title
of "The US has 4 freedoms in the background", the Fileleftheros
newspaper, based on the information it received, reported that the United States
was included in the "game" of support for the request of the Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, through Jonathan Cohen, Deputy Undersecretary
of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The newspaper claims that Cohen gave the EU
the opinion that the Turkish request should be fulfilled and that Brussels does
not oppose this view and that, based on the same information, he also claimed
that the issue of equal treatment for the Turkish citizens was also on the
agenda, whereas they are not aware of the rights the Greek citizens in Cyprus have
acquired from the EU membership.
The newspaper
also said that in case the EU demands, Cohen would be able to provide equal
treatment for Turkish and Greek Citizens in Cyprus by "simulating
exercises" through the combination of previously applied models, including
"Kaliningrad" or "Portugal". He was also informed that
preparations could be made for that. It has also been suggested that Brussels
will act in a way that Cyprus will have a special status in the EU, in accordance
with "previous models".
Regarding the
free movement of goods, the newspaper claimed that Turkey is working on the
combination of "Customs Union with the EU" and "Providing mutual
facilities" between the Federal Republic of Cyprus and Ankara.
In its news
comment on 5 March 2017, the Fileleftheros newspaper wrote under the title
"EU: Four Freedom with the Portuguese-Brazilian Model" that there are
hopes for the creation of a perspective for the resumption of the negotiations
on the Cyprus issue, if the influential circles in Brussels examine the
“similar examples” for the realization of the Turkish demands for 4 freedoms
for her citizens in Cyprus.
The newspaper
wrote that the influential circles worked on the example of Portugal, which provided
the privileged treatment of the EU, before allowing it to join the EU, by
granting work permits to workers from Brazil depending on the special
relationship between the two countries.
The newspaper
reported that there is a significant difference between the Portuguese example
and the situation in Cyprus and that Portugal was not an EU member, when it
demanded this privilege, whereas Cyprus has been an EU member state since 13
years.
After a blockage
of the inter-communal negotiations, the Greek Cypriot press wrote that the UN
has prepared some important bridging proposals between the external security
aspect of the Cyprus problem and the internal constitutional aspect, like the
rotating presidency. We shall be seeing the results, when the two leaders meet
in New York.
(published in In
Depth, Bimonthly Electronic Newsletter, Volume 14, Issue 3- June 2017, Cyprus
Center for European and International Affairs, University of Nicosia)
